Global Warming Models |
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Links to parts below
Climate Model section
Skeptics Section CO2 Science Section Scandal Section |
Special Interest Section This is a great article, and one that deals
with the pertinent factors. “The Sun-Weather Relationship Is Becoming Increasingly Important” A recent development is that Nobel Prize-winning physicist Ivar Giaever is quitting the American Physical Society, because of the organization’s rigid position--that “the evidence is incontrovertible, global warming is occurring.”--on anthropogenic global warming. Kudos to this scientist of integrity and good sense. Since then, the APS has reversed its position. Satellite data study shows more atmospheric heat being released
"The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space
during and after warming than the climate models show," Spencer said
in a July 26 University of Alabama press release. "There is a huge
discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over
the oceans." New Research Confirms that Earth's Upper Atmosphere is cooling off: http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2009/arch09/091221timed.htm
"It's like something else is heating the atmosphere besides the
sun. This discovery is like finding it got hotter when the sun
went down," said Larry Lyons, UCLA professor of atmospheric and
oceanic sciences and a co-author of the research, which is in
press in two companion papers in the Journal of Geophysical
Research. (Emphasis added) Excerpts from The Skeptics Handbook by Joanne Nova The climate is complex, but the only thing that matters here is whether adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will make the world much warmer: Everything hinges on this one question. None of the current models forecast that temperatures would stop rising from 2001 – 2008. So there is at least one other factor that is more important than CO2 and the models don’t know what it is. The only four points that matter: ...either a mystery factor stops the runaway greenhouse effect, or CO2 is a minor force. Either way, CO2 is trivial, or the models are missing the dominant driver. |
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Climate Model Section Satellites show that the world has not warmed in the last ten years, and that is a perfect foil for a simple exposition and comparison of the conventional and Electric Universe models for explaining climate changes including the erstwhile global warming. Are the prevailing climate models missing the dominant driver? See the Catastrophic/EU Model below.
Assumption Package #1 Assumption Package #2 Resulting Model Constraints Bottom Line There is one overriding consistency with the various climate models that have been developed with the above assumptions. They don't work! They may be wrong because the very premises upon which they stand are fundamentally incorrect. Here is a good article that explains the mainstream theory of
global warming and shows why it is wrong:
Are the prevailing climate models
missing the dominant driver?
Three Big Factors not in other models: 1. No Baseline 2. No Stable Solar Environment in the Past 3. Sun Powered Externally by Plasma Current All Solar System Bodies Take Energy from the Current Feeding
the Sun in this model. Here is what the UCLA newsroom has to say recently:
UCLA atmospheric scientists have discovered a previously unknown
basic mode of energy transfer from the solar wind to the Earth's
magnetosphere. The research, federally funded by the National
Science Foundation, could improve the safety and reliability of
spacecraft that operate in the upper atmosphere.
"It's like something else is heating the atmosphere besides the
sun. This discovery is like finding it got hotter when the sun
went down," said Larry Lyons, UCLA professor of atmospheric and
oceanic sciences and a co-author of the research, which is in
press in two companion papers in the Journal of Geophysical
Research. (Emphasis added)
Full article at:
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/scientists-discover-surprise-in-101025.aspx
Current through the Solar System has Periodic
Cycles of Increase and Decrease See articles by Wal
Thornhill:
Global Warming in a Climate of Ignorance, and
Science, Politics and Global Warming
Bottom Line Contributors to the model An ongoing audit of IPCC climate science papers along with lots of other interesting stuff is
happening here:
http://www.climateaudit.org/ A site examining climate science pitched more at lay
people by TV met Anthony Watts:
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ And the ongoing volunteer Surface Stations survey
project started by Anthony Watts:
http://www.surfacestations.org/ You will find lots of interesting stuff being highlighted via ICECAP:
http://www.icecap.us/ Patrick Michaels has a good site commenting on various climate science papers:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/ Roger Pielke Sr. has an excellent site dealing with papers on climate effects of
land use and other issues:
http://climatesci.org/ A simpler summary exposition of the arguments of the Gerlich,
etc., paper by Hans Schreuder. "The Acquittal of Carbon Dioxide" by Jeffrey A.
Glassman, Phd,
Interesting article describing how Wikipedia systematically censors
out all but warmist/alarmist views on Global Warming. Science Myth of Consensus Explodes:
APS Opens Global Warming Debate by Michael Asher (Blog), Daily Tech,
7/16/08 |
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Skeptics Section "Considerable presence" of skeptics The Skeptics Handbook by Joanne Nova. A great concise, hard-hitting download PDF The American Physical Society, an
organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed
its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of
its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS
is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global
warming science. The leadership of the society had previously
called the evidence for global warming "incontrovertible." In a paper titled Falsification of the Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects within the Frame of Physics, arXiv:0707.1161v3 [physics.ao-ph], is the following abstract: The atmospheric greenhouse effect, an idea that authors trace back to the traditional works of Fourier 1824, Tyndall 1861, and Arrhenius 1896, and which is still supported in global climatology, essentially describes a fictitious mechanism, in which a planetary atmosphere acts as a heat pump driven by an environment that is radiatively interacting with but radiatively equilibrated to the atmospheric system. According to the second law of thermodynamics such a planetary machine can never exist. Nevertheless, in almost all texts of global climatology and in a widespread secondary literature it is taken for granted that such mechanism is real and stands on a firm scientific foundation. In this paper the popular conjecture is analyzed and the underlying physical principles are clarified. By showing that:
(a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and
the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects,
Interesting information on cooling phenomena and current
developments at:
Captain Cook and Lord Nelson's logs
indicate 1730's global warming wasn't man made
Global Warming piece by Floy Lilley on the Lew Rockwell Column at
Christopher Monckton's paper with the
contentious APS disclaimer can be found here:
The Announcement by the APS editor of Physics & Society to open a
debate about the IPCC and its scientific critics is available online here:
Some significant quotes: "I am a skeptic Global warming has become a new religion." - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever. "Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly. As a scientist I remain skeptical." - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology and formerly of NASA who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called "among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years." Warming fears are the "worst scientific scandal in the history. When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists." - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist. "The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn't listen to others. It doesn't have open minds. I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists," - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet. "The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity." - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico "It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don't buy into anthropogenic global warming." - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA. "Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.". Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ. "After reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet." - Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review. "For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" - Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden. "Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp. Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact." - Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee. "Many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly (from promoting warming fears), without having their professional careers ruined." - Atmospheric physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh. "Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense. The present alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning." - Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles. "CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another. Every scientist knows this, but it doesn't pay to say so. Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps Europeans in the driver's seat and developing nations walking barefoot." - Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu University in Japan. "The [global warming] scaremongering has its justification in the fact that it is something that generates funds." - Award-winning Paleontologist Dr. Eduardo Tonni, of the Committee for Scientific Research in Buenos Aires and head of the Paleontology Department at the University of La Plata.
For a fascinating compatible view of meteorology and climatology by
Dr. Henrik Svensmark, the head of the Centre for Sun-Climate Research, see:
Another article that tells us of the informational chicanery, Deafening Silence on Real Climate Change
by Patrick J. Michaels has some pointed (barbed?) facts and comments: Amazing Climate Predictions Revealed—Climate Models Reviled A critical excerpt from the above site: "[O]ne of the more disquieting presentations was by retired TV meteorologist Anthony Watts. Part of Watts' training back when he was getting his degree in 1970s was to construct a Stevenson screen in which to shelter weather instruments. When he was putting it together his hands got covered in whitewash. He complained to his professor and suggested that he paint it with latex paint instead. His professor objected that whitewash had been used since 1892 and new paints would change the way the instruments functioned and possibly bias the data they collected. The U.S. Weather Bureau changed paints in the late 1970s. "With time on his hands, a retired Watts decided to run a back yard test with Stevenson screens using whitewash, white latex paint, unpainted wood and an aspirated temperature shield. He measured for several months, but typical among his results was one day in August when he found that the bare screen registered a maximum daytime temperature of 98.47 degrees, the latex screen was 97.74 degrees, the whitewashed one was 96.94 and the aspirated temperature shield reported 95.03 degrees. "Watts decided to check to see how the Stevenson screens housing nearby weather stations that were part of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) had been painted. What Watts discovered was much more disturbing—many USHCN weather stations were deplorably placed near parking lots, air conditioning vents, under shade trees, at sewage treatment plants, and so forth. "Watts then proceeded to show the audience slide after slide of badly, even absurdly, sited weather stations. Watts has now created a website of volunteers who are working to identify and audit the siting of all USHCN weather stations. The results are reported at SurfaceStations.org (regrettably down for maintenance at the moment. But for 50 examples of badly sited stations, go here.) So far Watts' volunteers have reported 502 of the 1221 stations in the U.S., and only 13 percent of the network so far conforms to the National Weather Service's own best practices manual. This is shocking when one considers that these are the same surface stations that climatologists rely upon to detect temperature trends." |
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CO2 Science Section How unsettled can science get? From climatologist Professor Timothy Ball: “I have said the IPCC focus on CO2 is akin to saying my car is not running well and I am going to determine the cause by ignoring the engine (sun), the transmission (water vapor), and most other mechanical parts and focus on one nut (CO2) on the right rear wheel. Worse, they only look at one thread of the nut, the human portion of CO2. The ease with which they have achieved this degree of focus is frightening, but understandable because it was premeditated.” "The Acquittal of Carbon Dioxide" by Jeffrey A. Glassman, Phd, It seems that direct observation didn't turn up the CO2 signature
that planetary scientists were looking for (heavy absorption in
specific IR wavelengths). That would SEEM to indicate little
CO2 ice present. However, they seem to have discarded that result
assuming that "it must be there" and that somehow it must be
"covered" by some other sedimentation so as to "hide" the signal
they were looking for. Is the Fox Guarding the Henhouse? Below is the body of a letter to the EPA by Howard C.
Hayden, Professor Emeritus of Physics, UConn. Prof. Hayden
added to his email the comment: "People will do anything to
save the world -- except take a science course" Fox News has reported on the latest unseemly development in the GWA movement by making public a fair amount of email that was hacked from the Hadley Climate research unit. "Climate change skeptics describe the leaked data as a "smoking gun," evidence of collusion among climatologists and manipulation of data to support the widely held view that climate change is caused by the actions of mankind." See: |
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Perspective Section New climate science vindicates global warming
skeptics
Best Article yet for perspective from:
http://antigreen.blogspot.com/
Worst Case Scenario A Word On Pollution
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Scandal Section
Global Warming Scandal Suggested by email made public:
Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx3q2arm_ek
GW email Scandal affects Scientists:
Australian Newspaper Article by Andrew Bolt
Excerpt from above: THIS does not mean all
global warming science is bogus. But it does mean the
"consensus" of scientists you keep hearing of may not
exist. It means the IPCC reports
cannot be trusted to be balanced. It means "peer review"
is actually too often "mates' review". It means sceptical
scientists have not had the hearing they deserve, and
leading warmist scientists have not been honest or
frank. It means claims we've never
been hotter are false or unproven. And in all it means that
the theory of global warming is too weak to accept. Even Dr Tim Flannery, the
alarmist who predicted that global warming could cause
Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide to run out of water by
last summer, now admits - after reading some of these
emails - that "the computer modelling and the real world
data disagree", since "for the last 10 years we've gone
through a slight cooling trend", and this actually
proves "we don't understand all of the factors that
create Earth's climate".
Why Earth may be entering a new ice age.
http://www.helium.com/items/1837151-why-earth-may-be-entering-a-new-ice-age |
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