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Memphis Commercial Appeal </>

  Earthquake study says New Madrid might have fizzled

    University of Memphis researchers skeptical of Northwestern's findings

    * By Tom Charlier </staff/tom-charlier/>
    * Memphis Commercial Appeal
    * Posted January 24, 2010 at midnight

For all its lethal, concrete-crumbling power, the Haiti earthquake this
month was no bigger — and probably a good bit smaller — than the seismic
shocks that convulsed the New Madrid fault zone not once or twice, but
three times during a ghastly winter nearly 200 years ago.

        Poll

        Coming on the heels of the devastating Haiti earthquake, do the
        studies saying the New Madrid zone is less of a threat for a
        major quake make you feel safer?
Yes.
No.

See the results » </polls/2010/jan/24quakepoll/results/>

View previous polls » </polls/>

The magnitude 7.0 Haiti quake, however, occurred at a time of some
upheaval over the science and public-policymaking associated with the
New Madrid faults — zigzagging fractures in the Earth's crust along the
Mississippi River extending to within 35 miles of Memphis.

Researchers led by a Northwestern University scientist have produced a
series of studies — the most recent appearing in the journal Nature two
months ago — concluding that the New Madrid zone is shutting down as a
generator of major quakes. The hundreds of small temblors that still
rumble through the region annually, they say, appear to be nothing more
than aftershocks from the massive quakes of 1811-12.

The widely published findings are roundly disputed by University of
Memphis researchers and many federal scientists. But they have provided
ammunition to those opposed to stronger seismic building codes for the area.

The conclusions by Seth Stein, professor of Earth science at
Northwestern, are based on Global Positioning System satellite
measurements showing that the ground is barely moving — if at all —
along the New Madrid faults. Quakes generally occur when the strain, or
energy, that has built up as a result of such movement is suddenly released.

By contrast, movement along the fault triggering the Jan. 12 Haiti quake
was about 7 millimeters per year — or at least 35 times faster than the
maximum 0.2-millimeter rate in New Madrid.

"You could say that the earthquake in Haiti adds credibility to the
argument that nothing is happening in New Madrid," said Stein, lead
author of the study published in Nature.

Over a two-decade period, measurements of the rate of ground movement in
the New Madrid zone show a distinct trend, he said.

"Every year we look, it's smaller. ... It looks like we have a fault
that has pretty much shut down."

Along faults that are situated at the edges of continental plates,
aftershocks generally occur in the days and weeks following quakes. But
in a midcontinent zone such as New Madrid, Stein said, "aftershocks can
go on for a couple hundred years."

The conclusions by Stein and co-investigator Mian Lu, professor of
geological sciences at the University of Missouri, are controversial.

While acknowledging that Stein's GPS measurements are accurate and
important, researchers at the Center for Earthquake Research and
Information at the U of M say it's overly simplistic to interpret them
as meaning the fault system has shut down.

"It's one piece of data," said Chuck Langston, director of the U of M
center.

Despite the lack of movement, the historical record for New Madrid is
clear, he said. Every 400-500 years, the fault zone produces huge
earthquakes. In addition to the 1811-12 shocks, which were estimated to
have magnitudes of up to 7.8, researchers have found geologic evidence
of similarly large quakes in the New Madrid zone around the years 1450
and 900 A.D. and as far back as 2350 B.C.

Given the slow pace of geologic changes, Langston questions how a fault
zone that produced such powerful quakes only two centuries ago could
undergo such a dramatic transformation so quickly.

"It just doesn't work that way," he said. "It takes hundreds of
thousands of years for the Earth to do something — either start up or
shut off."

In 2006, a panel of experts convened by the U.S. Geological Survey to
assess earthquake hazards in the eastern half of the nation evaluated
the GPS data on which Stein bases his conclusions. The panel did not
find the data to be a "convincing reason" to downgrade the seismic
hazard in the New Madrid zone, a USGS report says.

Earthquake-preparedness officials also remain unswayed by Stein's findings.

"Clearly, history has shown we've had large earthquakes, and we continue
to have earthquakes, and there's no reason we shouldn't be planning for
them," said Jim Wilkinson, executive director of the Central United
States Earthquake Consortium.

A 2008 study by the Illinois-based Mid-America Earthquake Center
projected the effects that a magnitude 7.7 quake would have on the New
Madrid region today. It found that Tennessee would experience the
greatest losses, with more than 63,000 people killed or injured, 260,000
others displaced, and economic damages exceeding $56 billion.

Unlike Haiti, where a lack of building codes was a major factor in the
catastrophic damage and the estimated 200,000 deaths, Memphis and Shelby
County have had seismic construction standards in place for nearly two
decades.

However, state auditors last year said the local seismic provisions were
outdated. Except for "critical" facilities such as hospitals and police
stations, new buildings must meet seismic standards contained in a
building code dating back to 1999. As a result, the county soon is
expected to adopt newer standards, which could increase construction costs.

Stein, however, questions whether it's worth it, given the new evidence
that the New Madrid zone isn't dangerous.

"You ought to look at whether that money could better be spent on
schools, the police, hospitals, whatever," he said.

/— Tom Charlier: 529-2572/

/© 2010 Memphis Commercial Appeal. All rights reserved. This material
may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. </privacy/>/

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      </news/2010/may/17/strength-of-new-madrid-at-doubt/>


      Also in Greater Memphis </news/news/local/>

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      Comments » 45

    * Hide <#comments>

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    * January 24, 2010
    * 12:30 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605198/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605198>


          techimnot </users/techimnot/> writes:

It stopped? Don't things sometimes stop because they have met
resistance, and build pressure until something gives? Oh, never mind.
just my wild imagination I guess.....right?

    * January 24, 2010
    * 12:43 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605203/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605203>


          jford1983 </users/jford1983/> writes:

Earthquakes will happen anywhere. It's just that we as Memphians have
never experienced one in our lifetime. Convincing people that it could
happen one day is always a hard sell. Remember 1990? People thought that
a major earthquake would happen here, and it never happened.

Point taken, no one will ever take this research seriously until an
earthquake actually happens here. Until then, we will all continue to go
about our regular lives without even giving that a single thought.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 5 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605224/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605224>


          FlossieMae </users/FlossieMae/> writes:

well I dont know where some of you have been but in 1976 Memphis had a
3.0 earthquake. I remember it well! We even had a few aftershocks. So
YES we have experienced an earthquake in Memphis!!

    * January 24, 2010
    * 6:33 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605229/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605229>


          Dunno </users/Dunno/> writes:

Hmmm. Quiet before the storm? I am skeptical of these findings. I will
never forget the 1976 earthquake, like Flossie. And that was just an
inkling of what occurred in Haiti!

    * January 24, 2010
    * 7:38 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605235/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605235>


          firstsettler </users/firstsettler/> writes:

Every 400 to 500 years. Last big one was 200 years ago. I don't plan to
be around for the next big one.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 7:53 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605238/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605238>


          tin_man </users/tin_man/> writes:

I don't know anything about earthquakes or fault lines, but I do know
that I'd believe a researcher at Northwestern over one at Memphis. No
contest.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 8:31 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605246/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605246>


          realism101 </users/realism101/> writes:

I'm worried sick over this event that may or may not happen. I'm
wringing my hands in worry. What will the outcomes be if it does happen?
Will my house be swallowed up? Will 200,000 people perish?

Personally, I'm not going to spend my life worrying about something that
I can't control.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 8:54 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605252/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605252>


          mmitch6190#208880 </users/id/208880/> writes:

If the researchers are as reliable as the weathermen, then make sure
everything is tied down and be prepared to run into the street.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 9:16 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605257/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605257>


          NokoMarie </users/NokoMarie/> writes:

    in response to *tin_man </users/tin_man/>*:

    I don't know anything about earthquakes or fault lines, but I do
    know that I'd believe a researcher at Northwestern over one at
    Memphis. No contest.

Yeah, right. Memphis has an internationally recognized research center,
not a researcher.

The Center for Earthquake Research and Information has a huge seismic
network, the largest in the eastern Unites States. CERI is a primary
partner in the Advanced National Seismic System, a nationally
standardized system of high-quality seismic instrumentation supported by
the US Geological Survey.

Me, I'd listen to someone who's speaking for an institution with a vast
body of research and experience.

Of course, you're really just interested in seizing on any opportunity
you can find to bash Memphis, aren't you?

    * January 24, 2010
    * 9:17 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605258/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605258>


          realism101 </users/realism101/> writes:

That's right, mmitch. I'll bet they might even start a Global Earthquake
hoax that says that developed countries have to give a bunch of money to
undeveloped ones, in order to solve the earthquake crisis.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 9:40 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605274/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605274>


          techimnot </users/techimnot/> writes:

I guess it really doesn't matter. If any of us who live in this area
were really concerned, we would be gone. But then again, where would we
go that Mother Nature can't rock our world. Earthquakes, tornadoes,
hurricanes, flooding and even a HUGE sleeping volcano under Yellowstone
National Park. Like realism101 said. No need to worry about things you
can't control, just be aware of their existence and have some sort of
plan. Of course the chaos that would follow such an event would probably
force you to alter your plan anyway. So if you survive, you're still
stuck between a fallen bridge and a traffic jam. Enjoy life!

    * January 24, 2010
    * 10:18 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605284/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605284>


          hoopballsdeep </users/hoopballsdeep/> writes:

    in response to *techimnot </users/techimnot/>*:

    I guess it really doesn't matter. If any of us who live in this area
    were really concerned, we would be gone. But then again, where would
    we go that Mother Nature can't rock our world. Earthquakes,
    tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding and even a HUGE sleeping volcano
    under Yellowstone National Park. Like realism101 said. No need to
    worry about things you can't control, just be aware of their
    existence and have some sort of plan. Of course the chaos that would
    follow such an event would probably force you to alter your plan
    anyway. So if you survive, you're still stuck between a fallen
    bridge and a traffic jam. Enjoy life!

Very well said and a good philosophy.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 10:30 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605290/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605290>


          BillDog </users/BillDog/> writes:

This is an authoritative source but I wonder if the wingnuts will blame
this on global warming, er...climate change or perhaps George Bush???

    * January 24, 2010
    * 10:37 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605298/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605298>


          CooperYoungun </users/CooperYoungun/> writes:

I remember back when Iben Browning scared Memphians so bad a lot of them
had seismic gas shut off valves installed on their gas meters.

techimnot does have very good points. And I agree, I've got a plan. As
well as supplies. If and God forbid when, I might not make it to either,
but I've got them.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 10:46 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605305/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605305>


          GoodMan </users/GoodMan/> writes:

The reason they are skeptical is because it lessens there jobs and
importance for this region.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 11:13 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605321/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605321>


          GrumpaTiger </users/GrumpaTiger/> writes:

    in response to *techimnot </users/techimnot/>*:

    It stopped? Don't things sometimes stop because they have met
    resistance, and build pressure until something gives? Oh, never
    mind. just my wild imagination I guess.....right?

My line of thinking also.I'm no professional,but it seems to me that
this is when we need to get ready.Every time we have a little ol' 2.0 or
3.0 trembler,I thank the good lord for relieving some of the pressure so
we don't have to absorb the blow of a 7.0 or better quake.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 11:14 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605322/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605322>


          woodendoor </users/woodendoor/> writes:

Famous last words. These Northwestern University "intellectuals" need to
cram it. After such report, it probably means the earthquake is just
around the corner. Thanks guys!

    * January 24, 2010
    * 11:19 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605323/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605323>


          somememphisdude </users/somememphisdude/> writes:

The researcher from Northwest said "shutting down", not shut down and
ZERO danger. If he did say that, he would be a fool. There are small
earthquakes every few days or so along the New Madrid. We are no more
and no less in danger of a severe quake here in Memphis than we were
before. I urge people to brush up on earthquake preparedness, have a
plan and have supplies.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 11:31 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605332/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605332>


          woodendoor </users/woodendoor/> writes:

    in response to *somememphisdude </users/somememphisdude/>*:

    The researcher from Northwest said "shutting down", not shut down
    and ZERO danger. If he did say that, he would be a fool. There are
    small earthquakes every few days or so along the New Madrid. We are
    no more and no less in danger of a severe quake here in Memphis than
    we were before. I urge people to brush up on earthquake
    preparedness, have a plan and have supplies.

Sadly, the people who live in section 8 housing have no idea what your
talking about. Thus, we will have a similar outcome as Port-au-Prince
(or worse).

    * January 24, 2010
    * 11:36 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605336/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605336>


          rukiddingme </users/rukiddingme/> writes:

    in response to *NokoMarie </users/NokoMarie/>*:

    Yeah, right. Memphis has an internationally recognized research
    center, not a researcher.

    The Center for Earthquake Research and Information has a huge
    seismic network, the largest in the eastern Unites States. CERI is a
    primary partner in the Advanced National Seismic System, a
    nationally standardized system of high-quality seismic
    instrumentation supported by the US Geological Survey.

    Me, I'd listen to someone who's speaking for an institution with a
    vast body of research and experience.

    Of course, you're really just interested in seizing on any
    opportunity you can find to bash Memphis, aren't you?

"Of course, you're really just interested in seizing on any opportunity
you can find to bash Memphis, aren't you?"

Why can't someone just express their opinion without having a nasty
comment about it show up? This person has a right to his/her opinion
just as much as anyone else, including you, Pay...

    * January 24, 2010
    * 11:48 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605345/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605345>


          woodendoor </users/woodendoor/> writes:

    in response to *rukiddingme </users/rukiddingme/>*:

    "Of course, you're really just interested in seizing on any
    opportunity you can find to bash Memphis, aren't you?"

    Why can't someone just express their opinion without having a nasty
    comment about it show up? This person has a right to his/her opinion
    just as much as anyone else, including you, Pay...

Isn't this a case of pot calling the kettle black? Aren't you following
a nasty comment with one of your own?

    * January 24, 2010
    * 12:32 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605364/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605364>


          stemar </users/stemar/> writes:

But they have provided ammunition to those opposed to stronger seismic
building codes for the area.

That is the only reason it is being brought out..
The people in town that own things,, and build things don't want more
money out of their pocket.

THe reasearchers only did this study because you don't get press by
saying the same thing everyone else is saying. So they decided to write
a paper doing the opposite.

Building standard should be strengthened.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 12:52 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605375/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605375>


          rss1963 </users/rss1963/> writes:

    in response to *Dunno </users/Dunno/>*:

    Hmmm. Quiet before the storm? I am skeptical of these findings. I
    will never forget the 1976 earthquake, like Flossie. And that was
    just an inkling of what occurred in Haiti!

I remember that too. I had a hanging lamp in my room which started
swinging. Scared the #@$%^^ out of me.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 1:04 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605382/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605382>


          MRoper </users/MRoper/> writes:

    in response to *rukiddingme </users/rukiddingme/>*:

    "Of course, you're really just interested in seizing on any
    opportunity you can find to bash Memphis, aren't you?"

    Why can't someone just express their opinion without having a nasty
    comment about it show up? This person has a right to his/her opinion
    just as much as anyone else, including you, Pay...

Anyone is entitled to their opinion, but ignorance should not be
condoned. This person's ignorant claim that it would be better to trust
a Northwestern researcher vs. one at Memphis is dumb considering that U
of Memphis has one of the best, if not the best, earthquake research
facilities in the U.S. It's on the same line as those "Tiger High"
comments where ppl want to bash U of Memphis for whatever reason when,
in reality, it is a great university in several fields (i.e. nursing,
law, psychology, hospitality/resort management, mathematics, etc.)

    * January 24, 2010
    * 1:05 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605384/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605384>


          realism101 </users/realism101/> writes:

    in response to *stemar </users/stemar/>*:

    But they have provided ammunition to those opposed to stronger
    seismic building codes for the area.

    That is the only reason it is being brought out..
    The people in town that own things,, and build things don't want
    more money out of their pocket.

    THe reasearchers only did this study because you don't get press by
    saying the same thing everyone else is saying. So they decided to
    write a paper doing the opposite.

    Building standard should be strengthened.

"The researchers only did this study because you don't get press by
saying the same thing everyone else is saying?" Can you provide one iota
of evidence to support such a statement? One? Anything?

Seems to me that even your premise is wrong, if you consider global
warming. Every scientist there is "gets press" if he simply says, "The
earth is warming." Yet, there are many scientists saying the opposite
that don't get any press at all.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 1:41 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605405/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605405>


          highview </users/highview/> writes:

    in response to *NokoMarie </users/NokoMarie/>*:

    Yeah, right. Memphis has an internationally recognized research
    center, not a researcher.

    The Center for Earthquake Research and Information has a huge
    seismic network, the largest in the eastern Unites States. CERI is a
    primary partner in the Advanced National Seismic System, a
    nationally standardized system of high-quality seismic
    instrumentation supported by the US Geological Survey.

    Me, I'd listen to someone who's speaking for an institution with a
    vast body of research and experience.

    Of course, you're really just interested in seizing on any
    opportunity you can find to bash Memphis, aren't you?

Yes there are quite a few in or near our city who in their droll fashion
love to nurse their community inferiority complexes and share this
dissatisfaction with the world. Our fine U of M Earthquakes Studies
Center should be more knowledgeable than others pertaining to the fault
which potentially affects us the most, however I am glad to see another
recognized university seismic study finding that The New Madrid is
potentially declining in activty and risk, if for no other reason, to
give the Negaholics one less arrow in their Anti Memphis sling regarding
standard of living issues. We should be prepared in building standards,
disaster planning and family emergency preparedness as a matter of
common sense, but certainly not dwelling on a day to day gloom & doom
expectation here any more than the average city anywhere.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 2:17 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605412/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605412>


          dwcoyote </users/dwcoyote/> writes:

    in response to *NokoMarie </users/NokoMarie/>*:

    Yeah, right. Memphis has an internationally recognized research
    center, not a researcher.

    The Center for Earthquake Research and Information has a huge
    seismic network, the largest in the eastern Unites States. CERI is a
    primary partner in the Advanced National Seismic System, a
    nationally standardized system of high-quality seismic
    instrumentation supported by the US Geological Survey.

    Me, I'd listen to someone who's speaking for an institution with a
    vast body of research and experience.

    Of course, you're really just interested in seizing on any
    opportunity you can find to bash Memphis, aren't you?

It's amazing how when you present some facts to these idiots they just
go away. Hey Tin_Man, how about you give some facts for your argument?
Oh you don't have any.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 2:30 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605422/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605422>


          John__Jones </users/John__Jones/> writes:

    in response to *FlossieMae </users/FlossieMae/>*:

    well I dont know where some of you have been but in 1976 Memphis had
    a 3.0 earthquake. I remember it well! We even had a few aftershocks.
    So YES we have experienced an earthquake in Memphis!!

I remember that.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 3 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605431/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605431>


          Dontpoofmebro </users/Dontpoofmebro/> writes:

I'm gonna give my insurance agent a call and see if my Quake coverage
can be reduced.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 8:01 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605502/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605502>


          stemar </users/stemar/> writes:

    in response to *Dontpoofmebro </users/Dontpoofmebro/>*:

    I'm gonna give my insurance agent a call and see if my Quake
    coverage can be reduced.

Some ins companies will not even give you that coverage anymore. And the
ones that do limit how much they will payoff and require a large copay
anyway...

    * January 24, 2010
    * 8:14 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605508/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605508>


          HalleBerry </users/HalleBerry/> writes:

Ummmmm.... I wouldn't taunt Mother Nature.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 9:18 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605524/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605524>


          oaks777 </users/oaks777/> writes:

yes we have had a few small quakes and tremblors in the past 25 or so years.
yes Memphis spent a good deal of money on reinforcing the bridges and
underpasses not too many years ago due to the possibility of "the big one".
yes there still is a fault line that could give a suprise to everyone
that could be deadly.
But the one thing to remember is the humongous quake that our Lord will
give at the end of time. Hope everyone will be ready for that one.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 9:50 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605531/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605531>


          CosmicStargoat </users/CosmicStargoat/> writes:

Hopefully I will be dead before it hits. Imagine a beaker full of sand.
Place a marble on top of it and shake. Look what happens to the marble.
That's what would happen to EVERY edifice sitting on on the Mississippi
flood plain that extends from Memphis to nearly Batesville Ark., the
first safe haven. In a nutshell, everything would just be torn apart and
sink into the sedimentary layer...just disappear. Another New Madrid
major earthquake would be a disaster unlike any other ever seen in the
U.S. Places like West Memphis, Blytheville and most of Jonesboro would
just disappear. Help would come to big cities like Memphis first, other
smaller communities would just die. It WILL happen, it is just a matter
of time. Tomorrow, 100 years from now, 500 years from now,it will
happen. Goat help us when it does, god will be nowhere to be found to
help. The good news it that no one alive now will likely witness this
catastrophe. We will be incapable of knowing or caring about anything.
Such is life.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 10:45 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605552/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605552>


          msuthon#313916 </users/id/313916/> writes:

It's funny... you would believe Northwestern's research from "afar" over
Memphis's local studies. However, I believe both are lacking compared to
the USGS, which also stated Northwestern's study is misleading.

Natural disasters happen every day. Most of the time, unpredicted.
Earthquakes happen all over the world and often can lead to chain
reactions. An earthquake in S. California can cause quakes in N.
California at a later time. Earthquakes on the outer fault line (haiti)
could eventually lead to intercontinental earthquakes due to change in
fault pressures.

Point, when you say Mother Nature won't attack, she comes back stronger
than you could have imagined!

    * January 24, 2010
    * 11:09 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605555/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605555>


          Samara </users/Samara/> writes:

    in response to *tin_man </users/tin_man/>*:

    I don't know anything about earthquakes or fault lines, but I do
    know that I'd believe a researcher at Northwestern over one at
    Memphis. No contest.

So your saying that northern people are smarter than southern people???
IDIOT.

    * January 24, 2010
    * 11:19 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605557/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605557>


          Bluff_City_View </users/Bluff_City_View/> (Inactive) writes:

So, are they saying earthquakes can be predicted?

    * January 25, 2010
    * 2:08 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605572/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605572>


          Pippin </users/Pippin/> writes:

Here is an interesting article published the DAY after this one. It's
called, "Could the Mississippi Delta Become the Next Haiti?"

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/miss...
<http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/mississippi-delta-americas-haiti/story?id=9638036>

    * January 25, 2010
    * 8:19 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605637/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605637>


          southgrl66 </users/southgrl66/> writes:

    in response to *FlossieMae </users/FlossieMae/>*:

    well I dont know where some of you have been but in 1976 Memphis had
    a 3.0 earthquake. I remember it well! We even had a few aftershocks.
    So YES we have experienced an earthquake in Memphis!!

Yes, I remember that! I was about 10 y/o and recall walking across the
living room floor and feeling it shake! Then I went into my mom and
dad's bedroom where they had the TV news on and even the anchors were
saying "Hey! What was that?"
The next day my teacher did a whole science lesson on it. As a kid I
thought it was pretty cool ;-).

And as for the dumb*** who discounted the CERI at the U of M. Their
reserch was recently featured on an episode of "Nova" on PBS. So I guess
some folks who are heckuva lot smarter than you know the good work they
do. Get the facts before you post your grossly uninformed opinions.

    * January 25, 2010
    * 9:28 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605701/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605701>


          PhiAlpha97 </users/PhiAlpha97/> writes:

I have to believe the UoM Professors over those from northwestern. They
know their research, and some of the more recent stuff has to do with
sand geysers. They are what occurred when the ground shook enough for
the sand, being less dense than other soils, erupted from the ground in
plumes.

They have identified sand geysers dating back before human inhabited the
midsouth. They found pottery fragments in a campsite built ontop of one
of these geysers, after it erupted and carbon dated the fragments. And
more and more geyser plumes above those.

As cyclical as this thing is, it is kind of like Yellowstone. It may
have occurred before we can remember but it is as regular as a clock in
geological respect.

    * January 25, 2010
    * 9:34 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605706/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605706>


          IceVol </users/IceVol/> writes:

    in response to *CosmicStargoat </users/CosmicStargoat/>*:

    Hopefully I will be dead before it hits. Imagine a beaker full of
    sand. Place a marble on top of it and shake. Look what happens to
    the marble. That's what would happen to EVERY edifice sitting on on
    the Mississippi flood plain that extends from Memphis to nearly
    Batesville Ark., the first safe haven. In a nutshell, everything
    would just be torn apart and sink into the sedimentary layer...just
    disappear. Another New Madrid major earthquake would be a disaster
    unlike any other ever seen in the U.S. Places like West Memphis,
    Blytheville and most of Jonesboro would just disappear. Help would
    come to big cities like Memphis first, other smaller communities
    would just die. It WILL happen, it is just a matter of time.
    Tomorrow, 100 years from now, 500 years from now,it will happen.
    Goat help us when it does, god will be nowhere to be found to help.
    The good news it that no one alive now will likely witness this
    catastrophe. We will be incapable of knowing or caring about
    anything. Such is life.

That is an uninformed fear mongering claim. What your trying to describe
is liquification similar to the Northridge quake in CA. The alluvian
soil is not the same stuff that devestated the unprepared Northridge
area, but yes it is similar. There is some risk of liquification in some
areas of the Mississippi delta, It is foolish to say we are all going to
sink into the ground. Northridge had an unfortunate loss of 70 or so
lives but this is not a whole region sinking into the ground. We can
design to reduce the effects of liquification. Stop trying to scare
people. While an earthquake would be devastating to any region, we can
be confident that we are as prepared as possible.

    * January 25, 2010
    * 10:45 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605788/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605788>


          KristieL </users/KristieL/> writes:

I've spent most of my life on a fault line of some sort. First, it was
the New Madrid (Memphis) and now I'm in on the San Andreas and many many
others that crisscross this area(SF Bay Area).

I actually feel less concerned living out here on a more active fault
line because out here we are far better prepared. Our emergency services
are better trained, our buildings are better built, and our citizens are
better prepared to fend for themselves in the event of a major quake.
Most of us have plans in place for what to do when - not if - it
happens. I can't say that for most of my friends back home.

In the event of a major disaster, it may be several days before anyone
is able to reach you. The general rule is to have supplies to last for
at least 3 days - 72 hours - in case it takes that long for services to
be restored. For more information, visit http://72hours.org/. Make sure
you have an earthquake kit ready!

Don't be a complacent Memphian.

    * January 25, 2010
    * 11:29 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605834/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605834>


          southgrl66 </users/southgrl66/> writes:

I keep putting off assembling an emergency kit. I am going to have to
make that a priority this year.

    * January 25, 2010
    * 11:49 a.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605870/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605870>


          new2you </users/new2you/> writes:

Having lived in "earthquake country" I can tell you that if a big one
hits here with most of the building construction that has no sesmic
protection you won't be around to know what happened.
I will say this, with all the smaller quakes that occur here the chances
of a large one are diminshed as pressure is relieved from the plates
pushing together. I husg slippage could happen but I really doubt it.
However having a survival kit is the best thing one could do no matter
the emergency.

    * January 25, 2010
    * 12:11 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605889/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605889>


          seriously </users/seriously/> writes:

Funny...ABC news is predicting that the Mississippi Delta could become
America's Haiti and a New Madrid earthquake within 50 years. wonder
which "experts" are in fact "experts"?
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/miss...
<http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/mississippi-delta-americas-haiti/story?id=9638036>

    * January 25, 2010
    * 12:58 p.m.
    * Suggest removal </comments/flag/605930/>
    * Reply to this post </comments/reply/?target=61:175455&comment=605930>


          damoma </users/damoma/> writes:

    in response to *KristieL </users/KristieL/>*:

    I've spent most of my life on a fault line of some sort. First, it
    was the New Madrid (Memphis) and now I'm in on the San Andreas and
    many many others that crisscross this area(SF Bay Area).

    I actually feel less concerned living out here on a more active
    fault line because out here we are far better prepared. Our
    emergency services are better trained, our buildings are better
    built, and our citizens are better prepared to fend for themselves
    in the event of a major quake. Most of us have plans in place for
    what to do when - not if - it happens. I can't say that for most of
    my friends back home.

    In the event of a major disaster, it may be several days before
    anyone is able to reach you. The general rule is to have supplies to
    last for at least 3 days - 72 hours - in case it takes that long for
    services to be restored. For more information, visit
    http://72hours.org/. Make sure you have an earthquake kit ready!

    Don't be a complacent Memphian.

In this town with possible damage to our infrastructure we need to be
prepared to wait 10 days for any assistance. Get ready Memphis. Our day
is coming. Preparation will help you be calm when it happens.


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