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_A Review of */Exodus to Arthur; Catastrophic Encounters with Comets/* _

_by Mike Baillie_

ISBN 0 7134 8352 0

Steven Zoraster

I found this book both entertaining and informative. The author,
Professor Mike Baillie, an authority on "dendrochronology" and
palaeoecology at Queen's University, Belfast, presents a fascinating
scientific detective story. The story starts with the description of a
decades long collaborative effort by many scientists to develop a
worldwide record of climate modulated, annual tree growth as recorded in
tree growth rings (dendrochronology). That effort has produced a
reliable timeline from the present back to several thousand years BC.
The author then notes five unusual patterns in these records, separated
by hundreds of years, which point to multi-year events with extreme
weather conditions. The patterns are radically reduced tree growth rings
and obvious frost damage to sapwood, the layer of wood growing each
spring directly under the tree bark. These patterns imply weather
conditions that might lead to local or worldwide catastrophes, including
crop failures, famine and flooding. This sets up the principal theme in
*/Exodus to Arthur/*, as the author presents his own efforts to find a
single explanation for all of these events. Professor Baillie uses as
evidence historical records left by - among others - the authors of the
Old Testament; Anglo-Saxon, Irish, Roman, Greek, Chinese and Mayan
writers and story-tellers; archeological evidence including boats and
trees recovered from Irish bogs; well preserved building timbers from
long abandoned Anasazi pueblos in Utah; and other scientific techniques
such as radiocarbon dating.

The five harshest environmental events showing in the dendrochronology
records are events at 2354-2345 BC, 1628-1623 BC, 1159-1141 BC, 208-204
BC, and 536-545 AD. In terms of climate, these time periods appear
similar in that the growth ring evidence implies colder than usual
temperatures and unusual rainfall patterns. So what does the author
think is the common cause of these climate anomalies? Well, the book's
title gives the answer away, so I will not repeat it. I will say that
the author does an excellent job of presenting his own ideas and some of
the principal alternative theories, and then explaining why he finds the
other theories less compelling than the theory he favors. The
presentation of the alternative theories takes the readers on an
easy-to-follow tour of efforts to duplicate parts or all of the
dendrochronology timeline using other scientific methods. These methods
include analyzing ice-cores collected in Greenland, dating volcanic
eruptions by radiocarbon methods, and using archeological evidence to
note similarities or differences in tools, clothing, burial practices
and trade goods between spatially separated cultures.

Why is the book titled "*/Exodus to Arthur?/*" Obviously, it is a catchy
title, likely to appeal to individuals not very excited by a book on
dendrochronology. More importantly, it alludes to two of the key
historical/mythical events or traditions most familiar to western
readers that Baillie believes can be explained by catastrophes
identified in tree growth rings. As others before him, Baillie thinks
that the "Exodus" story from the Bible takes place at the same time as
the massive eruption of the Mediterranean volcanic island of Santorini.
He argues that individual events in Exodus, such as the plagues and the
"pillar of cloud by day and fire by night" can be explained by that
eruption, which he dates to 1628 BC, the first year of the second of the
environmental catastrophes he has identified from growth rings. The
"Arthur" part of the title comes, naturally, from an investigation of
the history/mythology surrounding Arthur, king of the Britons. The death
of Arthur is commonly dated to 539 AD, right in the middle of the fifth
environmental catastrophe identified by Professor Baillie. One important
part of the Arthurian myth is the Grail legend. And an important part of
the Grail legend is the concept of an English wasteland where no crops
grow and the land is infertile, something which certainly could be
explained by an environmental catastrophe.

But what about those three other environmental catastrophes identified
by Professor Baillie? Well, he has to go a little further afield to set
those events in a convincing historical context, and does so with
enthusiasm. So the reader will learn something about the fall of two
Chinese dynasties, uncertainty in the dating of the "New Kingdom" in
ancient Egypt, why the Romans brought a meteorite representing the
Oriental goddess Cybele to Rome around 205 BC, and the reason almost all
cultures in both the old world and the new world have legends about
dragons. (Along the way, the reader is also reminded that the name of
King Arthur's father was Uther Pen*/dragon/*.)

This book is one of many recently published books by scientists on
"catastrophe theory" which are aimed at popular instead of
scientifically trained audiences. */Exodus to Arthur/* is the best book
of this kind I have read. Unfortunately, publishers and editors for
these books are demanding "human-interest stories" as well as science.
So the poor scientists respond clumsily by including information about
emotions they experienced and discussions they participated in as they
performed their research. The results are generally poor, which isn't
very surprising, since most scientists do not have the skill to write a
human-interest story and still present compelling scientific arguments.
Professor Baillie is an exception and pulls off the trick of mixing the
personal with the scientific almost seamlessly, probably because he has
a good sense of humor, which comes through strongly in his writing.

By the way, the dust cover of this book is horrible. I purchased it
through Amazon.com based on information gathered from Internet mailing
lists. If I had seen the book first in a bookstore, I would have taken
one glance at the cover and decided not to buy it. I suggest buying the
book and throwing the dust cover away as soon as you find a trashcan. 
(Alternatively, if you like to show off, you can leave the cover on.
This invites questions from people who see you carrying the book, and
then you will have the perfect excuse to lecture them on some of the
things you learned by reading */Exodus to Arthur/*.)