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The Collapse of Ancient Societies By Great Earthquakes

Amos Nur

_Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305,
USA_
_e- mail: nur at pangea.stanford.edu_

Although earthquakes have often been associated with inexplicable past
societal disasters, their impact has thought to be only secondary for
two reasons: Inconclusive archaeological interpretation of excavated
destruction, and misconceptions about patterns of seismicity. However,
a better understanding of the irregularities of the time-space
patterns of large earthquakes suggest that earthquakes (and associated
tsunamis) have probably been responsible for some of the great and
enigmatic catastrophes in ancient times. The most relevant aspect of
seismicity is the episodic time-space clustering of earthquakes such
as during the eastern Mediterranean seismic crisis in the 4th century
AD and the seismicity of the north Anatolian fault during our century.
During these earthquake crises plate boundaries rupture by a series of
large earthquakes that occur over a period of only 50 to 100 years or
so, followed by hundreds or even thousands of years of relative
inactivity. The extent of the destruction by such rare but powerful
earthquake clusters must have been far greater than similar modem
events due to poorer construction and the lack of any earthquake
preparedness in ancient times. The destruction by very big earthquakes
also made ancient societies so vulnerable because so much of the
wealth and power w as concentrated and protected by so few. Thus the
breaching by an earthquake of the elite's fortified cities must have
often led to attacks by (1) external enemies during ongoing wars
(e.g., Joshua and Jericho, Arab attack on Herod's Jerusalem in 31
BCE); (2) neighbours during ongoing conflicts (e.g., Mycenea's fall in
1200 BCE, Saul's battle ~1020 BCE); and (3) uprising of poor and often
enslaved indigenous populations (e.g., Sparta and the Helots in 465
BCE, Hattusas ~1200 BCE?, Teotihuacan ~700 AD?). When the devastation
was by a local earthquake, during a modest conflict, damage was
probably limited and may have required a few tens of years to rebuild.
But when severe ground shaking is widespread, and when it happened
during a major military conflict, the devastation may have been so
great that it took hundreds of years for a society to recover - going
through a dark age period during which many of the technical skills
(e.g., writing) are abandoned (e.g., the cessation of linear B),
construction and repairs of monumental buildings ceased, and looting
of building materials by surviving squatters was common. In contrast,
we can imagine the pastoral countryside, especially away from the
tsunami prone coastal areas, to have been much less affected (and
perhaps even flourished a little as their tax burden to the ruling
elite is reduced). During a regional seismic crisis an entire region
must have been subjected to a series of devastations by earthquakes
over a short period of time. The catastrophic collapse of the main
Eastern Mediterranean civilizations at the end of the Bronze age may
be a case in point, with the _Sea People_ being mostly squatters and
refugees.
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AMOS NUR is the Wayne Loel Professor of Earth Sciences and Professor
of Geophysics at Stanford University. Amos specializes in earthquake
physics. For over twenty years, he has been investigating the temporal
and spatial patterns of earthquakes throughout history to find clues
useful for earthquake prediction. The longest and most complete record
is in the Holy Land, where the Dead Sea seismic fault defines the
Arabia - Africa plate boundary, as the San Andreas defines the N.
American/Pacific plate boundary. Together with colleagues in
archaeology, history, geology and geophysics at Stanford and Israel,
Amos has organized an expedition to search for, and excavate and
recover skeleton/s, artifacts, and Dead Sea scrolls buried 2000 years
ago in the "Cave of Letters. in Israel's Judean desert by the
devastating Dead Sea Earthquake of 31 BC. The first part of this
expedition took place in March of this year. Amos is a winner of the
Silver Apple Award for physical sciences at the National Educational
Film Festival, 1991 for producing and directing a video on Earthquakes
in the Holy Land. This has been shown extensively on a number of PBS
stations around the country. Publications: Over 180 papers in refereed
journals; and 3 books.
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Presented at the SIS Conference: [1]Natural Catastrophes during Bronze
Age Civilisations.

References

1. file://localhost/www/sat/cambconf.htm